EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production rise by 2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its first forecasts for energy production, consumption, and prices through 2026.
The EIA projects an increase in U.S. crude oil production, estimating an average of 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024. This figure is expected to rise to 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025, with a slight increase to 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026. The EIA believes that the rate of production growth will slow in 2026.
The EIA anticipates an increase in global oil production will surpass the global demand for petroleum products, driving oil prices downward through 2026. Brent crude oil prices are expected to average USD $74 per barrel in 2025 and decline to USD $66 per barrel in 2026.
Electricity demand in the United States is forecasted to continue its growth after a 2% increase in 2024. Similar growth rates are expected for 2025 and 2026, marking the first period of consecutive growth in electricity demand since 2005–07. The EIA forecasts that the industrial sector will see the fastest growth in electricity demand, increasing by 2% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. This growth is attributed to emerging semiconductor and battery manufacturing operations. In the commercial sector, demand is projected to rise by 2% annually in both 2025 and 2026, largely due to increased data-centre power consumption.
Renewable energy sources are expected to reach a significant milestone in the United States, contributing one-quarter of electricity generation by 2025, with this figure rising to 27% by 2026, according to the EIA's forecasts.
The EIA's outlook for natural gas prices indicates an increase. The Henry Hub spot price is expected to average USD $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 and USD $4.00/MMBtu in 2026. This increase is due to demand growth—predominantly from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports—outpacing production growth and maintaining inventories at or below the 2020–2024 average for most of the next two years.
Concerning emissions, the EIA forecasts a slight rise in U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2025, with a marginal decrease projected for 2026. Emissions from coal and petroleum-product consumption drive the 2025 increase. For 2026, the decline is attributed to reduced electricity generation from natural gas and improvements in vehicle fuel economy.
The complete details of the January 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook are available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which emphasises its independence from other government agencies in preparing its data, analysis, and forecasts.
